Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-11 0.055306 0.062948 0.071512 0.081866 0.094109 0.108198 0.125750
2026-01-18 0.045547 0.055426 0.067451 0.083339 0.104034 0.130442 0.167281
2026-01-25 0.037400 0.048130 0.062140 0.082141 0.110576 0.150531 0.212746
2026-02-01 0.030558 0.041260 0.056116 0.078845 0.113865 0.167785 0.261368
2026-02-08 0.026430 0.037366 0.053472 0.079869 0.124016 0.198860 0.345156
2026-02-15 0.023090 0.034043 0.051083 0.080889 0.134874 0.235689 0.458873
2026-02-22 0.020563 0.031538 0.049526 0.083045 0.148789 0.284448 0.627949
2026-03-01 0.018377 0.029220 0.047863 0.084738 0.162857 0.340947 0.860014
2026-03-08 0.016141 0.026459 0.044943 0.083455 0.170849 0.389265 1.118569
2026-03-15 0.013776 0.023118 0.040395 0.077901 0.167854 0.410428 1.321324
2026-03-22 0.012501 0.021565 0.038974 0.078678 0.180601 0.483180 1.810420
2026-03-29 0.011584 0.020546 0.038429 0.081343 0.199701 0.589888 2.637438
2026-04-05 0.010595 0.019267 0.037189 0.082272 0.215370 0.701667 3.778400
2026-04-12 0.009705 0.018063 0.035905 0.082834 0.230803 0.829972 5.457352
2026-04-19 0.008765 0.016625 0.033859 0.080911 0.237827 0.933385 7.409832
2026-04-26 0.007835 0.015091 0.031346 0.077107 0.237025 1.003050 9.457240
2026-05-03 0.007272 0.014277 0.030409 0.077633 0.253028 1.185304 14.315247
2026-05-10 0.006776 0.013548 0.029556 0.078227 0.270202 1.405000 22.350382
2026-05-17 0.006387 0.013010 0.029093 0.079967 0.293899 1.715961 38.160415
2026-05-24 0.006019 0.012472 0.028544 0.081308 0.317284 2.080989 67.188737
2026-05-31 0.005578 0.011711 0.027277 0.079865 0.326673 2.355100 106.338159
2026-06-07 0.005037 0.010648 0.025041 0.074432 0.312500 2.377353 131.851569
2026-06-14 0.004762 0.010212 0.024481 0.075027 0.332378 2.832838 253.147321